ELECTION 2020 PREDICTIONS

Okay, here’s my read and prediction about the election on Tuesday. I’m not going to beat around the bush. I’m not going to give you the hedge your bet song and dance number like all the political experts are doing.  I loathe the Cover Your Ass prognosticators who touch every base, so they can say they were right when the dust settles.  That aint how I roll.

Why are experts so scared to be wrong?  Why, I say?

“Biden will win if …  Trump can win if … This looks good …  This looks really bad …” 

Yeah, no shit!   Like the Firesign boys used to say, “On the other hand, there’s a fist.”

Let’s just admit once and for all that 2016 aint 2020, any more than it would be in sports, dating, or tiddlywinks. And Clinton blew it. So, how about you talking heads all reach down into your pants, and check to make sure your privates are still there.  And if they are, then tell us what you think WILL happen, not MIGHT happen.

Thus sprach Zarathustra:

1. Biden will win easily by 5 million in the popular vote and by 351-187 in the Electoral College.
2. Dems will take the Senate 53-47.   Warnock is the top vote getter in the Georgia Special Election but no candidate will get 50%, so we will have the general in January.  It will be the most expensive Senate race EVER.
3. Dems pick up an additional 18 seats in the House.

In the end, when Biden is President, we will look back in hindsight and say this, “The consistency of the polls in Biden’s favor over the course of the entire election cycle were truly remarkable.  And Trump’s unwavering unfavorables signaled his defeat right from the beginning.”

We focus on the micro (individual states) at the expense of the macro (the nation).  We can play the Rust Belt and the Sunbelt game until the angels jump off the head of the proverbial pin.  We can get way, way down in the weeds.  We can talk about the changing South — first Virginia went, and now it’s North Carolina’s turn, and maybe even Georgia. 

And I can play the swing state game too:
 BIDEN                         

Pennsylvania

Minnesota                     

Michigan                          

New Hampshire

Wisconsin                   

Arizona

Nevada

Georgia

   Florida

North Carolina

TRUMP

Texas

Ohio

Iowa

But here’s the really scary thing if you are Trump. Biden won’t lose MN, MI, or WI.  They are done.  Have been for a while now.  

You can argue that PA is still in play — not really — but for argument’s sake, give it to Trump.  If Biden gets AZ and NV, he’s at 270.  So, PA really doesn’t matter all that much this time around.

If Biden gets NV and NC, he’s at 275.  

And let’s not forget NE (2) is solidly Biden, and ME (2) is close but always has leaned Biden.

The noose is tightening.  

So, Trump better get FLA, GA, and NC, like he keeps bragging he’s going to do, or it’s over. Basically he’s drawing to an inside straight flush. Can it be done? NO! Any more than monkeys over time could write Shakespeare.

And this notion that we are going to be waiting for days or even weeks before we know who won is total bullshit too.

They have been counting the ballots as they were submitted in: AZ, NV, CO, MN, and GA.  So, the winner should be announced in those states as soon as the polls close on election night.

And they will have already been counting ballots in: MI, NC, FL, OH, IA, ME, and NE.  So, the tallies should start coming in for those states late on election night — probably enough to predict a winner.

Yeah, It sucks that PA and WI won’t count mail-ins until the polls close, but frankly, I think it will be irrelevant by midnight. And it’s their own damn fault that they let their Republican legislatures try and pull a slow one.

And the Supreme Court isn’t going to play any role because court challenges in elections only work when it’s close, like the 10,000 votes in Florida between Gore and Bush. But when you lose badly — and make no mistake, that’s exactly what’s going to happen to the Trumpster — there’s nothing for the courts to litigate that can change the outcome. It’s nibbling at the margins.

In truth, the final outcome was right there screaming at us every waking day since summer when COVID-19 started really kicking ass and taking names.

• Consumer Confidence is at an all time low.  
• Over 60% of America says the country is on the wrong track.
• Almost 70% are terrified of catching COVID, and that number is rising along with the infection rate.  
• The economy is in shambles.  
• The jobless and homeless numbers are through the roof.  

So, how would anyone think Trump could be elected?

And in the end, this election was over when Biden was selected by the Democrats as their candidate.  The rest was history.